Preview: Omega Dubai Desert Classic
The European Tour returns to Emirates Golf Club, with the Middle East swing having already seen Lee Westwood become a champion of four consecutive decades. One week on, what story is set to unfold?
There has never been a shortage of big-name winners in Dubai. In the thirty years this event has existed, champions at the top of the game have have been added to the list of winners like skyscrapers to the Dubai skyline.
Take a pick of your favourite - Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Seve Ballesteros, Sergio Garcia, Colin Montgomerie, Henrik Stenson, Fred Couples - the list is impressive. In fact, of the 30 times the event has been played, 14 of the winners are also names of major champions.
Big purses attract big name fields, and quite frequently, big name winners. Will this week follow this trend, or will there be a giant-killing?
Diving into the 2020 event, historically, what makes a winner at Jumeirah Golf Club?
This won't come as a surprise to many, but both of the previous winners standout category was 'Strokes Gained: Putting.' Hao Tong Li led this category for players that played all four rounds in 2018, and Bryson DeChambeau was fifth overall when he emerged victorious last season.
That's not unusual for an event champion. Where things get interesting, is that both have beat the field in terms of driving distance, but only Bryson beat the field in driving accuracy. On top of this, both averaged better than 4.20 on Par 5 scoring.
The field favourite this week for most will be Tommy Fleetwood. In his last three events, Fleetwood has recorded a win, a solo second, and a tied second at the Nedbank, the DP Tour Championship, and in Abu Dhabi respectively. It is therefore no surprise that his odds are as short as they are.
Success has been hard to come by in Dubai for Fleetwood. He'll be looking to ride the wave of his stunning 63 on Sunday last weekend into a week that hasn't shown him much kindness in the past. Despite a hot Sunday, the putter was relatively cool for Fleetwood in Abu Dhabi. He gained shots on the field, but his recorded rounds leave him 83rd on the European Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Another good week may be brewing for Tommy, but a without a consistently hot putter, he might need to wait a little while longer for his first win of 2020.
Matthew Fitzpatrick will also be seen by many as a wise pick for the title. After finishing alongside Tommy Fleetwood in T2 at -17 in Abu Dhabi, with a win in Dubai already under his belt at the 2016 DP World Tour Championship, and with a putter that gained him over 1.1 shots on the field per round, on paper, it looks like Fitzpatrick might be ready to add win number six to his CV.
Shockingly, Fitzpatrick went all of last year without a win, despite leading the European Tour in Strokes Gained: Total. It's hard to pick which part of that stat is more astonishing, but for Fitzpatrick, it will all be about righting the one fault of his 2019 season as quickly as possible. That one fault being, he never brought silverware back home.
At Emirates Golf Club, Fitzpatrick has recorded finishes of T16, MC, T5, T45, MC, from 2019 to 2015 respectively. His lowest round on this course is 67. This record isn't glowing, but current form could very well be enough to put the past behind him.
The one stat that makes this prediction off-putting however, is Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Fitzpatrick hasn't recorded positive strokes gained in this category in either of the last two years at this event. Driving distance, in particular, has proven to be a popular stat amongst winners in the desert, and it could very well prove to be the hurdle that trips Fitzpatrick up this week.
Only one player has ever gone back to back at this event - Stephen Gallacher in 2014 and 2015. Bryson DeChambeau would be looking to become the fifth player (Els, Woods, McIlroy and Gallacher) to win the event multiple times.
Things did not workout for DeChambeau in Abu Dhabi. A birdieless Friday round of 77, after a 72 on Thursday left the American in a tie for 114th, and an early flight to stop two on his Middle Eastern excursion. Fond memories of Emirates Golf club may rebuff any sour aftertaste from last week, and lift the American into the weight class he feels he belongs in. DeChambeau flexed his muscles on the field last year, shooting a tournament record -24 en route to a seven shot victory. For anyone counting, that was five gym puns in one paragraph.
It's been a below-par year for Bryson since his sole win of 2019. For the 2020 season thus far, Bryson is 47th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 73rd in Approach, 33rd Around the Greens and 25th in Putting. This is an improvement in every category, bizarrely, apart from Driving and Approach - the two categories one might suspect would have improved after his much publicised off-season gym work.
While DeChambeau is now over averaging ten yards longer off the tee in 2020 than he was in 2019, he has dropped more than 20 spots in the Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee category. While 47th isn't exactly a worrying position to find yourself in this chart, the fact that his game isn't seeing any rapid improvement might be cause for concern, and cause to leave him out of your picks to win this weekend. Having said that, distance off the tee has proven to be far more important than accuracy at Emirates GC, so only time will tell for Bryson.
It's a tough week to predict. Several players, including the Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and DeChambeau will be looking to prove a point. Others come into the week riding a high. Players like Bernd Wiesberger, Robert McIntyre and, of course, Lee Westwood, all either come into the week in great form, or looking to build on successful 2019 seasons.
The three players I am touting for glory at the 2020 Omega Dubai Desert Classic, are the following:
Sergio Garcia
Getty Images
Spain has had plenty of champions in the history of this event, with Miguel Angel Jiminez, Alvaro Quiros, Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Sergio Garcia all winning here in the last ten years.
After averaging half a stroke gained putting on the field per round in Abu Dhabi, expect Garcia to contend for title number two in the desert. At last years event, he placed top 5 in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Add this kind of long game to even a lukewarm putter, and you might see Sergio in contention to follow Lee Westwood as the second man in two weeks to win in four consecutive decades.
Victor Perez
Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images.
Perez placed 16th in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting last week in Abu Dhabi, which is nearly 135 spots higher than his 2019 total. In addition to this, Perez ranks 12th on tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, after averaging just under 319 yards per drive in Abu Dhabi. Those two stats are useful to have on the utility belt when arriving at Emirates GC.
Similarly to Sergio, if Perez can keep his putter hot in Dubai, a late tee time on Sunday could be in the forecast.
Haotong Li
Photo by European Tour
Haotong has a fantastic record at this golf course. In nine of his twelve rounds, he has shot under par. In six of those nine rounds, he has scored 67 or better. This has led to finishes of 1st, T14th, and T39th at Emirates GC.
Last week saw the 24 year old finish in 41st place, with a quadruple bogey at the Par-4 11th hole on Saturday derailing his tournament hopes, as he went on to shoot a two over par round of 74. Consistency will be the key for Haotong this week, after recording 10 bogeys and a snowman in Abu Dhabi, but colourful cards haven't held him back in the past. Even the year he won in Dubai, he recorded 5 bogeys and one double bogey.
One key factor from his past experience at Emirates GC, is what I believe makes Haotong a top contender for the title this weekend.
Birdies have never been hard to come by in Dubai for the two-time European Tour winner, with 22 birdies and one eagle in 2019, 31 birdies in 2018, and 17 birdies in 2017. That's 70 birdies and an eagle in 216 holes at Emirates golf club, meaning he is picking up a shot every three holes he plays here. This has helped Haotong to a career +1.63 strokes gained versus the field on average per round at Emirates GC, which may be an indicator of the golf to come.
Comments
Post a Comment