A tale of two Opens

The second major championship in the last 14 months is about to begin at the famous West Course at Winged Foot Golf Club, and if the present and history do indeed rhyme, it is going to be a wild ride.

Before jumping into said history - just to set the stage - it's worth having a look at what some of the world's best players have to say about the venue this year. Somebody start the Kill Bill music.

World number three Justin Thomas' comments have garnered the most attention. "The viewers at home are going to see some pretty bizarre stuff and probably a lot of putts and chips that make us look pretty bad. If you're into that stuff, then you're going to like this week," Thomas said. Woah!

Tiger Woods said, "this one [Winged Foot] or Oakmont is either one or two," after being asked if the venue this week is the toughest course he has ever played. Just four players finished under par when the US Open was held at Oakmont in 2016, so if the aspiration is difficulty, Winged Foot just received very high praise.

Finally, World Number one Dustin Johnson also made an Oakmont comparison, but with one key difference. "It's very similar. The only difference is that off the tee at Oakmont, there's no trees in your way," Johnson said.

Excited yet?

The last time the US Open was contested at Winged Foot West, in 2006, Geoff Ogilvy won his only major title with a 72-hole score of five over par, after Colin Montgomerie and Phil Mickelson both double bogeyed the 72nd hole to miss out on the title, and subsequently a playoff. Only 12 rounds of under par golf were recorded all week.

Perhaps more famously (infamously, now) at the 1974 US Open at Winged Foot, the event was given the name of 'The Massacre at Winged Foot,' by journalist Dick Schaap, who produced a minute by minute account of the final round in a book of the same title.

Seven over par was Hale Irwin's winning score in '74. The third round leader Tom Watson shot 79 in the final round. The top-five players on the final leaderboard recorded just ten birdies between them during Sunday's play.

In both 1974 and 2006, neither Ogilvy nor Irwin had a single round under par in their winning week. These are the only two instances of this happening in men's major golf championship in the last 50 years.

The book by Schaap, and the scoring on the week led then USGA chairman Sandy Tatum to issue the infamous statement, "we're not trying to embarrass the best players in the world; we're trying to identify them."

Now, I know you're excited. If you're not, what are you doing here? Get out.

One large part of predicting a winner this week will be finding new and creative ways to believe that Dustin Johnson isn't going to win by eight. 

Disclaimer: and this is very important - I'm not saying he won't win by eight, because he very well might. I'm simply saying that, if all else fails, I'm going to pretend he won't. Follow this advice at your own peril.

We've had two sneak previews of this week since golf returned in July. The first was at The Memorial, where just nine players finished under par. More recently, we watched a mock US Open take place at Olympia Fields. Both of these tournaments were won by the same Spaniard, and his name is Rahm. 

Jon Rahm will win a major soon, and to ignore him this week would be to ignore recent clues, and you know what they say about ignoring history!

Another player not to curve is Collin Morikawa. The description of Winged Foot as a second-shot golf course has been beat into us slightly less than the videos of 10-inch rough, and slightly more than which US Open winners fall into the category of "underwhelming." (@GolfDigest - the answer is none, by the way.) 

If we're to believe that this is an iron players haven, it sounds like something that Morikawa will lap up. 

Finally, if Justin Thomas doesn't compete this week, it would be immensely surprising. Thomas led the Tour for the 2020 season in the category of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, which is a good place for a golf game to be, heading to what might be the toughest golf course in the world this week.

However, since winning the PGA Championship in 2017, Thomas has recorded just one Top-10 finish in major championships (PGA, T6, 2018). This run must end soon, and being paired on Thursday and Friday with the aforementioned Collin Morikawa, and Tiger Woods, might this be the week we witness JT contend for major championship number two?

Whatever happens, this weekend at Winged Foot is going to be as good as golf gets. On tough courses, the best of the best typically wins, and mediocrity is punished. If we're lucky, we'll get a lot of that over the next four days.

That wraps up the US Open segment of the article, but we are not done yet!

What, you really thought we'd ignore the Open de Portugal? With someone with the name 'Edoardo Raffaele Lipparelli' in the field? When it's a Dual Ranking European Tour/Challenge Tour event at a golf course that has 'royal,' 'resort,' and 'spa' in the name? When the strength of the field is this preposterously bad?

You don't know us at all.

It's onto Royal Obidos Golf & Spa Resort, marking a second successive week in Portugal on the European professional golf calendar. The European Tour players (some, not many) will make a 300 mile journey north from Vilamoura to the new event, while the Challenge Tour competitors return to action after a two week break that followed their last tournament in Northern Ireland. 

The overwhelming favourite for the week is George Coetzee, and rightfully so. The next two betting favourites are Garrick Higgo and Jamie Donaldson, so swallowing the nasty 4/1 price on Coetzee might be a necessary evil.

Usually, when starting odds for golf tournaments drop below 5/1, it's for good reason. They're typically reserved for the likes of Dustin Johnson participating in a 30-person field event, or when Jon Rahm decides he wants to steal the obscene prize money at a Rolex Series event. This week though, it's George Coetzee, and this is why...

He's off the back of two consecutive wins. One very fresh, coming Sunday at the Portugal Masters, and one before that in his home land of South Africa, at the Titleist Championship on the Sunshine Tour.

If you're determined to spite the bookmakers, and ignore Coetzee's farcically low price, good for you! It's not wise, but power to you, nonetheless.

If this is the case, don't look past Garrick Higgo. He's the only player in good enough form to beat Coetzee, with three Top-10's, including one win, in his last four international starts.

Open de Portugal aside, it's going to be a great week of golf.

Let us know in the comments who you're picking to best the beast that is Winged Foot, or if you're going completely ignore us, and go for somebody not from South Africa in Portugal!