Seasons Old and New

2020 is over, at least on the PGA Tour. The FedEx Cup has concluded, Dustin Johnson is $15 million richer, and we will never have to hear about projected standings, or the Wyndham Rewards again, until... Thursday afternoon. After the shortest off-season in sport, it is time to move on to the 2021 season with the Safeway Open.

The Europeans are not so lucky as this dismal year presses on, made somewhat more bearable by their visiting of Vilamoura, Portugal. The bubble of golfers will play Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course for the 14th iteration of the Portugal Masters. 

After a week at Valderrama on the European Tour, this will feel like a round on the PlayStation. It is the only course in European Tour history to yield a 59, a feat accomplished by Oliver Fisher in 2018. 

The worst winning score here since 2014 has been 17 under par, including the 2014 hosting, where Alexander Levy shot 18 under par (63-61), even though the tournament was shortened to two rounds due to inclement weather. 

English players seem to have a good record at the Portugal Masters. In the last 10 years, just three times has there been a final leaderboard that did not have an Englishman in the Top-2 spots. Englishmen have won here five times in that same span. Enter: Tommy Fleetwood?

This week is going to be the definition of a 'putting contest.' Zero of the last three winners placed inside the Top-10 for the week in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Likewise, none of the last three winners placed inside the Top-10 for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach. In this spell, only one player has finished inside the Top-35 for the week in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Lucas Bjerregaard, 3rd, 2017).

However, last year, champion Steven Brown led the four day field in Strokes Gained: Putting. The year before, Tom Lewis did the same. Lucas Bjerregaard placed 23rd the week he was victorious, but runner-up Marc Warren (you guessed it) led the field in putting! 

Superior putting is going to be the differentiator this week, so look for players that are notoriously good at rolling the rock.

On the PGA Tour, if you wanted to create the golf course that most perfectly depicts the average week on Tour, Silverado Resort & Spa (North) would be your result. 

Taking the main attributes of Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Approach, Around the Green, and Putting, the variance in scores at Silverado is driven by the exact all time PGA Tour average. This is the factory settings week for the Tour. The Switzerland of PGA Tour golf courses.

To simplify this, according to Data Golf, this week Driving Distance stats will separate scoring almost exactly as much as it will over the course of the entire 2021 season. The same goes for every single other facet of the game. 

What does this tell us? Quite briefly, it tells us to look at what statistic causes the largest separation of good scoring and bad scoring over the course of any given season. This, as I'm sure you have guessed, is Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

Last season, champion Cameron Champ led the field from the tee with a total of 1.675 strokes gained per round in that category. The year before, Kevin Tway was 19th in the field, gaining nearly 0.637 strokes per round. Brendan Steele went back-to-back here the two years prior to this, gaining 1.541 strokes per round in 2017, which led the field, and 0.400 strokes in 2016, which placed 20th in the field.

The field is pretty weak for PGA standards, and subsequently there is no clear betting favourite. Between Mickelson, Spieth and Garcia, I can't find any justification for odds of 25/1 and lower. Si Woo Kim and Brendan Steele have the shortest odds this week, which would make little sense any other week, but just about checks out for this season opener.

Out of everyone playing, Cameron Davis is the player worth jumping on. At 33/1, the Australian is as good a pick as any. He ranked 45th for the 2020 season in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and ended up with a positive return in every major Strokes Gained category. Very impressive.

Away from Davis, Harold Varner III, on paper, seems like a really good choice. He was eighth on the PGA Tour Strokes Gained: Tee to Green rankings in 2020. That puts him in seriously good company!

It puts him in such good company, in fact, that it is extremely worrying that he didn't win, or even really threaten to win at any point, ever. At 28/1, it would be annoying to pass on him, and subsequently watch him go on to take the title. As a result, even with a -0.215 SG: Putting total for 2020, it might still be worth the punt, given just how good his ball-striking is. If you chase this, and he flops, don't say you weren't warned, though!

In Europe, if you're avoiding Tommy Fleetwood at 6/1 (which I think you should given his current form), I'd look long and hard at Marcus Kinhult. He struggled last week, but who didn't? 

He's a great putter (12th on the European Tour this season), has a couple Top-15 finishes in his last three events, and in his one other appearance at Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, finished at 17 under par, in a tie for fourth place.

Another name to look at is Dave Coupland. Yep, that's C - O - U... keep scrolling, you'll find him. 

He has finished outside the Top-30 just once in his last five events, he is fifth on the European Tour in 2020 for Strokes Gained: Putting, and most importantly - he's English, which is seldom cause for merriment, but it does historically stand you in good stead at the Portugal Masters.

It isn't the most exciting week of golf, and unless you're a lunatic like myself, you probably won't tune in to see Guido Migliozzi sting some two-irons, and Jordan Spieth threaten to be good again for 11 holes. 

If you do opt to watch a lot of golf this weekend, A) we should get a beer, and B) look at it as earning your stripes for Winged Foot and the US Open next week. That's going to be worth the wait.