Atlanta-rama

The 2020 PGA Tour season wraps up this week at the Tour Championship in Atlanta, while the European Tour moves from an extended spell in the United Kingdom to Spain and Real Club Valderrama for the Andalucia Masters.

The Andalucia Masters was not held between the years 2012 and 2016, but the Open de Espana was hosted at Valderrama in 2016, meaning the course was absent from the European Tour rota for just four full seasons. In the four events held there since it resumed hosting duties, Andrew Johnston, Sergio Garcia (twice) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout have emerged victorious.

A common misconception about Valderrama is that hitting an abundance of fairways is the be all, and end all for a successful week. While accuracy from the tee is always helpful, not leading the statistic for the week has not stopped anybody. 

Garcia (x2) and Bezuidenhout bettered the field average in their title winning weeks, but neither finished inside the Top 20 of the Driving Accuracy statistic the week/s they won.

In fact, the great separator in recent years between good and great weeks at the iconic Ryder Cup venue has been the category of 'Scrambling.' 

In the three most recent of the Andalucia Masters, neither Garcia nor Bezuidenhout have placed worse than 6th in the field in Scrambling. Neither recorded a worse percentage in the category than 69.6% (Garcia, '17) in this same period.

Meanwhile, in Atlanta, Georgia, it's time to get the abacus out. The FedEx Cup will wrap us this weekend, with the victor taking home a tidy $15 million. What do you all think Dustin Johnson is going to do with that much money?

Johnson starts at ten under par, Jon Rahm at -8, Justin Thomas -7, Webb Simpson -6, and Collin Morikawa -5. The other 25 players in the field will start between -4 and even par. Before you begin to froth at the mouth at the prices of players six shots or back, it's worth looking at these stats reported by Justin Ray of the 15th Club, from this event last year.

After the first round of a PGA Tour event, with 54 holes remaining, players trailing the lead by 6 shots (this week including Bryson DeChambeau and Daniel Berger) have gone on to win that event just 15.3% of the time. Those trailing by seven shots (Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele) with 54 holes remaining have gone on to win just 7.9% of the time. The percentages steadily decrease per shot, down to a ten shot deficit (Viktor Hovland, Cameron Champ), where players have emerged victorious 0.5% of the time.

Of course, there are 18 extra holes to bridge the gap to Dustin Johnson this week, meaning the percentage chance of a large comeback is slightly higher than those listed above - but buyers beware! It is still incredibly unlikely to happen.

It isn't a tough call this week. According to Data Golf, East Lake CC shares the most characteristics with TPC River Highlands. This name will ring a bell to those that have been tuned in to the #ReturnToGolf as the golf course that Dustin Johnson won his first event of the season, and rather convincingly, at that.

Dustin Johnson has failed to finish outside of the Top-2 in any of his last three starts. He shot thirty under par at the last course that was soft and green, which East Lake definitely will be. He was one of only five players to finish under par last week at Olympia Fields, and only lost because of the most obscene putt in recent memory from Jon Rahm. He looks, and is swaggering, like he has time travelled to 2016. The reasons to back him are endless.

A two-shot lead over second placed Jon Rahm is also helpful, but by no means insurmountable. If the 2/1 price on DJ makes you gag (though I urge you to develop a reflex for this, and quickly), look for Collin Morikawa to be the main opposition this week. He struggled from tee to green at Olympia Fields, but the last time he flew this under the radar due to a so-so week, he went on to win a major the next.

On the European Tour, it is taking a great deal of restraint to simply copy and paste my prediction from last week, as the very same holds true this week. 

Rasmus Hojgaard is the best player in the field, by quite a distance, and is more than likely going to be really close to winning another trophy. He hits a lot of greens, has a passable Scrambling percentage this season of 56%, and - oh, I don't know - hasn't finished outside the Top-6 in his last four starts! If anyone is going to go back-to-back, it's the 19 year old Dane.

Andy Sullivan is the other player to consider for the title this week. He sits second on the European Tour in Scrambling for 2020, has won on Tour already since the restart, and in his 12 rounds at Valderrama, has gained 1.05 strokes per round on the field, which is the fourth best total in the field this week.