Preview: The PLAYERS
The Magical Kenya Open has been postponed as new governmental travel regulations are set in place due to fears over the spread of Coronavirus, meaning we will turn our attention to Florida and The PGA Tour, where TPC Sawgrass lies in wait of the world's best.
The European Tour regular schedule looks like it will be on a break until at least late April, with the next two events in Kenya and India both postponed. The two European Tour events that follow this will be the WGC-Matchplay and The Masters, meaning the core tour membership in Europe will be without competitive play for quite some time.
Luckily, play in the USA has faced little barrier, and all going well, shall go ahead as scheduled.
One of the strongest fields of the season is set to take on TPC Sawgrass, an event that has seen a new name inscribed upon the trophy in 18 of the last 20 years; only Davis Love III and Tiger Woods have become multiple winners of The Players since 2001.
There is little in the way of an explanation as to why players have trouble claiming multiple titles at TPC Sawgrass. Whatever the case, this is a course without a standout horse. Names varying from Tim Clark to Rory McIlory, Si Woo Kim to Tiger Woods, and K.J Choi to Jason Day have all won here in the last decade, pointing to no clear style of golf as advantageous, either.
What the stats do tell us is that Sawgrass is that rare breed of golf course on the PGA Tour, where Driving Accuracy is far more important than Driving Distance, which may explain why winners have come from all across the professional golf spectrum.
That doesn't help in picking a winner on the week, however, as it brings a whole school of golfers back into the discussion. The best way to decide might just be picking the most in-form players, which would certainly have been a good technique over recent years.
Since 2012, six of the eight champions ended up inside the Top-15 of the Strokes Gained: Total statistic in the year that they won. Below is a list of PLAYERS champions, the year they won The Players, and their final position for the season in the category of SG: Total.
That's pretty telling. There are two outliers here; Martin Kaymer being one, though 2014 was also the year the German claimed his second major title in a landslide at Pinehurst - so not a bad year by any stretch of the imagination. This leaves the only true outlier as Si Woo Kim, and 2017 yielded very little else for the South Korean. No stat is perfect.
Based on this, I'm going to take all three of my picks from the upper echelons of the 2020 category of SG: Total. If you did this every week, you would never be a million miles off in your predictions, but it seems especially pertinent this week in particular. I'm going to try and correlate this with players with above average Driving Accuracy stats, and if we're lucky, they'll have a decent record around Sawgrass, even if that doesn't particularly stand players in good stead historically.
With that in mind, here are three to look for this week in Ponte Vedra Beach:
Webb has been in cruise control for the past year. It's been just under twelve months since his last Missed Cut, in which time he has amassed seven Top-10 finishes, including a win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last month. He ranks 6th on Tour for SG: Total in the 2020 season, gaining +1.88 strokes on average per round, and he's 40th on Tour for Driving Accuracy, hitting 66% of the fairways he has faced. That's just about the perfect candidate for a winner at Sawgrass.
It would take a brave man to bet against Webb this week. His price of 22/1 could very well prove to be a gift from the bookies.
He's 12th on the season for SG: Total at an average of +1.46 strokes gained per round, hits 63.6 percent of his fairways (79th), and is 23rd in the category of Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
He picked up his first win at The Honda Classic, and looked like he was going back-to-back for a long time at Arnie's place last week, so nobody will be surprised if Sungjae Im is to join K.J Choi and Si Woo Kim as South Koreans to have won at TPC Sawgrass.
Neither of these are stories that sound the alarm of an imminent PGA Tour win, but I urge you all to dig deeper on this one - Cantlay is eighth in 2020 on the PGA Tour for SG: Total, at +1.77 strokes gained per round.
When did that happen?
He comes into the week a career high 6th in the Official World Golf Rankings, without a missed cut since this event last year, and with enticing odds of 22/1 to take home the title.
He has all the necessary requirements of a champion at TPC Sawgrass. He's 30th on Tour for Driving Accuracy, hitting 67.5% of his fairways faced on the season, and as we've seen, is in good form. Besides, doesn't he just seem like someone who is going to win a PLAYERS Championship at some point in his career?
The European Tour regular schedule looks like it will be on a break until at least late April, with the next two events in Kenya and India both postponed. The two European Tour events that follow this will be the WGC-Matchplay and The Masters, meaning the core tour membership in Europe will be without competitive play for quite some time.
Luckily, play in the USA has faced little barrier, and all going well, shall go ahead as scheduled.
One of the strongest fields of the season is set to take on TPC Sawgrass, an event that has seen a new name inscribed upon the trophy in 18 of the last 20 years; only Davis Love III and Tiger Woods have become multiple winners of The Players since 2001.
There is little in the way of an explanation as to why players have trouble claiming multiple titles at TPC Sawgrass. Whatever the case, this is a course without a standout horse. Names varying from Tim Clark to Rory McIlory, Si Woo Kim to Tiger Woods, and K.J Choi to Jason Day have all won here in the last decade, pointing to no clear style of golf as advantageous, either.
What the stats do tell us is that Sawgrass is that rare breed of golf course on the PGA Tour, where Driving Accuracy is far more important than Driving Distance, which may explain why winners have come from all across the professional golf spectrum.
That doesn't help in picking a winner on the week, however, as it brings a whole school of golfers back into the discussion. The best way to decide might just be picking the most in-form players, which would certainly have been a good technique over recent years.
Since 2012, six of the eight champions ended up inside the Top-15 of the Strokes Gained: Total statistic in the year that they won. Below is a list of PLAYERS champions, the year they won The Players, and their final position for the season in the category of SG: Total.
- Rory McIlroy, 2019, 1st
- Webb Simpson, 2018, 8th
- Si Woo Kim, 2017, 180th
- Jason Day, 2016, 1st
- Rickie Fowler, 2015, 14th
- Martin Kaymer, 2014, 84th
- Tiger Woods, 2013, 2nd
- Matt Kuchar, 2012, 11th
That's pretty telling. There are two outliers here; Martin Kaymer being one, though 2014 was also the year the German claimed his second major title in a landslide at Pinehurst - so not a bad year by any stretch of the imagination. This leaves the only true outlier as Si Woo Kim, and 2017 yielded very little else for the South Korean. No stat is perfect.
Based on this, I'm going to take all three of my picks from the upper echelons of the 2020 category of SG: Total. If you did this every week, you would never be a million miles off in your predictions, but it seems especially pertinent this week in particular. I'm going to try and correlate this with players with above average Driving Accuracy stats, and if we're lucky, they'll have a decent record around Sawgrass, even if that doesn't particularly stand players in good stead historically.
With that in mind, here are three to look for this week in Ponte Vedra Beach:
Webb Simpson
Photo from PGA Tour
This just seems like a really obvious pick for this week. The way 2018 Players Champion Webb Simpson has played for the last 12 months, I just don't see him having anything other than yet another stellar week of golf.Webb has been in cruise control for the past year. It's been just under twelve months since his last Missed Cut, in which time he has amassed seven Top-10 finishes, including a win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last month. He ranks 6th on Tour for SG: Total in the 2020 season, gaining +1.88 strokes on average per round, and he's 40th on Tour for Driving Accuracy, hitting 66% of the fairways he has faced. That's just about the perfect candidate for a winner at Sawgrass.
It would take a brave man to bet against Webb this week. His price of 22/1 could very well prove to be a gift from the bookies.
Sungjae Im
Photo from PGA Tour
His form is outstanding, and at 25/1, it almost seems irresponsible not to lump on Sungjae this week. He has waltzed through the first two weeks of the Florida Swing, and there seems to be little that can halt this march.He's 12th on the season for SG: Total at an average of +1.46 strokes gained per round, hits 63.6 percent of his fairways (79th), and is 23rd in the category of Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
He picked up his first win at The Honda Classic, and looked like he was going back-to-back for a long time at Arnie's place last week, so nobody will be surprised if Sungjae Im is to join K.J Choi and Si Woo Kim as South Koreans to have won at TPC Sawgrass.
Patrick Cantlay
Photo from PGA Tour
I think the only time I can recall hearing Patrick Cantlay's name this year are for the "Mai Tai," comments in Hawai'i, and for him withdrawing from the WGC-Mexico Championship for surgery on a deviated septum.Neither of these are stories that sound the alarm of an imminent PGA Tour win, but I urge you all to dig deeper on this one - Cantlay is eighth in 2020 on the PGA Tour for SG: Total, at +1.77 strokes gained per round.
When did that happen?
He comes into the week a career high 6th in the Official World Golf Rankings, without a missed cut since this event last year, and with enticing odds of 22/1 to take home the title.
He has all the necessary requirements of a champion at TPC Sawgrass. He's 30th on Tour for Driving Accuracy, hitting 67.5% of his fairways faced on the season, and as we've seen, is in good form. Besides, doesn't he just seem like someone who is going to win a PLAYERS Championship at some point in his career?
Comments
Post a Comment