British Masters Preview
After two weeks of co-sanctioned teasing that followed nearly four months of competitive inaction, the British Masters this week marks the first fully endorsed European Tour event since the return to golf, and with all due respect to the Austrian events, the first one we're really excited to follow.
It's also the first time that a majority of European Tour card holding professionals will have competed for Official World Golf Ranking points (more on this from The Quick Hook later this week) since March.
Another note of interest, the tournament host Lee Westwood is also in the unique position of being tournament betting favorite, and as being the affiliated professional at the host course.
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The British Masters is set to begin on Wednesday, July 22, kicking off a stretch of six consecutive events to be played in England and Wales. Five courses will be used in this stretch, and it appears the selection has favoured, understandably, proximity to a major hotel over prestige and caliber of golf course.
Of the six events will be played over five courses, approximately one will prompt even a half baked yearning to go and play it. Hint: it's not Celtic Manor, and it also isn't this week - but don't let that dissuade you from tuning in for the return of televised mornings of golf.
The last time (and only time) the British Masters was hosted at Close House GC, Paul Dunne shot a Sunday 61 to best Rory McIlroy to his first professional title.
The course this year will have an entirely different routing to the 2017 event. It appears that the 18th from the 2017 championship will play as the 4th this year, and the 15th from 2017 is now the opening hole. In addition to this, despite playing 33 yards shorter on the scorecard this year, the par of the course will be one more; Close House is a Par-71 now, as compared to a Par-70 in 2017. One would imagine this might be to protect the course against a 59, which a couple of players had a glimpse at in 2017.
The two renditions of the British Masters played since the last visit to Close House (at Walton Heath and Hillside Golf Club, for sheer nostalgic purposes) have been won by Eddie Pepperell in 2018, and Marcus Kinhult in 2019. Both Pepperell and reigning champion Kinhult are in the field this week.
Another note of interest, the tournament host Lee Westwood is also in the unique position of being tournament betting favorite, and as being the affiliated professional at the host course.
With one year to base them off of, the stats come from a relatively small sample size, but they do give a decent indication as to what might prove beneficial this week. When Paul Dunne won at Close House in 2017, he had a Strokes Gained: Total average of 3.93 strokes gained on the field per round, and nearly half of that came from SG: Approach, for which Dunne ranked fourth in the field, totalling +1.72 per round for the week.
Close House is a relatively short course, so it's no huge surprise that Dunne ranked 76th in the field for SG: Off the Tee, with a negative total for the week, and still managed to win. Nearer to the hole, Dunne was +0.88 in SG: Around the Green, and +1.51 for the week in SG: Putting. These totals were 17th and 18th for the week respectively.
Being the first event back, there is a good chance this event is going to be a free-for-all, and as such, it could be easy to be tempted by 'easy names.' Therefore, there are several players I am making it abundantly clear that I am refusing to be tempted by.
The first and most unfortunate of which is Eddie Pepperell. His podcast kept me sane during lockdown, but his tales of weight loss and dieting during lockdown have put some sort of fear into me, for reasons of jealousy as much as betting formulae.
The next is tournament host, Lee Weswood. Consider this the opposite of a Peloton endorsement.
For much the same reason Westwood didn't win as British Masters tournament host in 2017, as Fleetwood was in 2019, there is a lot that happens away from the golf while hosting a golf tournament. I expect Westwood to play well, but not much better than a modest Top-20, or a sneaky Top-10.
And finally, for players I'm resisting the urge to bet on - this is not going to be a week of 'horses for courses.' Paul Dunne is not going to win this week, and his odds of 66/1 are quite frankly ludicrously low. Taking a peak at his recent form, you'll find that there is none. Literally - none.
Dunne has not played in 2020 after undergoing wrist surgery in November of 2019. Prior to this, he missed the cut in all of his previous six tournaments. Don't be tempted on this one, because it just simply isn't going to happen.
Instead, for the first week back to European Tour action, to win the British Masters, we are picking:
Calum Hill
Hill is an immensely talented golfer that seems to have a winning nature. Hill is a three time victor on the Challenge Tour, and with European Tour card in hand, a win would come, I imagine, as a surprise to very few.
It's been a tough start to life in the top-tier of European golf for Hill, missing three cuts in four events in 2020, so a four month break will have done no harm here.
The Scottish rookie got to work over in the United States during the break from competitive golf, where he actually won a mini-tour event in Arizona in April.
At 100/1, this feels like a good pick this week.
Andy Sullivan
Before the 2020 season screeched to a halt, Sullivan was seeing a slow trickle back to form. It had been a while since we'd seen the Englishman consistently near the upper ends of leaderboards, as his form appeared to yo-yo quite extremely in 2019, but there was definite forward momentum occurring this year.
He's stands sixth on Tour for the season in SG: Approach this year, gaining an average of 1.22 strokes per round, the same category that Paul Dunne flourished in during his victorious week
Sullivan's last appearance at Close House was adequate, but nothing special. He finished T44 for the week with three Sub-70 rounds. Sullivan is going to win again on Tour, and this week seems as good as any.
Guido Migliozzi
Not many people win two times in their rookie season and get slept on as much as Migliozzi has. As both the Belgian Knockout and Magical Kenya Open Champion, the Italian has not yet won an event the size and stature of the British Masters, but he certainly knows how to get across the line.
In addition to this, Migliozzi was ninth on Tour in 2019 for SG: Approach, gaining an average of 0.96 strokes per round.
It was a tough start to 2019 for the two-time European Tour champion, like Calum Hill, making just one cut so far in 2020. Once again though, the break came at the right time, and it would be wise to expect a much more in form Migliozzi to appear at Close House.
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