Relocation, relocation, relocation
The Italian Open has attracted a strong field this week, even despite relinquishing Rolex Series status, which it had held for the last three seasons. Meanwhile, on the PGA Tour, Sherwood Country Club will step in as the host course for the ZOZO Championship, which was originally scheduled to be played in Japan.
Starting with the event in Brescia, very few underdogs have emerged victorious in the Italian Open in recent years, perhaps due to the elevated status, and subsequent jacked-up prize money. While it has lost this status, and much of the financial lucrativeness, the field is still top-heavy this week, which comes as somewhat of a pleasant surprise.
Teeing it up in Italy will be Lee Westwood, who just chalked up his sixth consecutive Top-20 finish at the Scottish Championship. Alongside him will be Victor Perez and Matt Wallace, who are both arriving on the back of runner-up finishes. The defending champion Bernd Wiesberger is also in the field.
On to the stats, Chervo Golf Club has eight holes that will play 470 yards or more. This includes four Par-Fives, and four Par-Fours. Two of the fives will play less than 550 yards, meaning there will be at least six holes that are what you could call '4.5' holes. With this being the case, it's a good time to look at Par-Five scoring average as a predictor.
The last three winners of the Italian Open (despite always being played at different courses) have finished the week inside the top-three in the field for the category of Strokes Gained (SG): Putting. In 2019, Bernd Wiesberger gained +2.53 strokes per round on the greens, Thorbjorn Oleson +2.36 in 2018, and Tyrrell Hatton +2.05 in 2017.
I see no reason to ignore putting statistics this year, even with yet another new tournament host. Chervo Golf Club, a resort style course, plays a little over 7,400 yards, so will be no monster, provided it doesn't get too cold. It's fairly generous from the tee, it's young (opened in 2008), and as a result - it is not going to be tough. 20 under par, or better, is going to win this week, which often indicates a putting contest is nigh.
So, who is rolling their rock this season? The stats suggest this might be tournament favourite, Matt Wallace. Wallace is 18th for number of One-Putts per round on Tour this season, 37th in Putts per GIR, and ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting.
In Scotland last week, Wallace gained over half a stroke per round on the greens in Scotland, and played the Par-Five holes in an average of 4.44, the tied best in the field. Wallace has an exceptional history in Italy, too. In 2016, while competing on the Alps Tour, Wallace won three times in Italy alone. He also has two top-ten finishes at the Italian Open in the last three years.
It would be careless to omit that Wallace is also trending in a good direction. His last four finishes, in order, have been T43, T30, T24, and solo second. There's only one more position to climb for Wallace this week, and it looks like he will be wearing the favourite tag for good reason.
Away from the favourite, it would be wise to keep an eye on Johannes Veerman this week. Veerman fits the profile for someone who may do well. He's third in SG: Putting on the European Tour, and eighth in Par-Five scoring. I'm reluctant to pick him, due to a withdrawal at his previous event, the Irish Open, but the stats are difficult to ignore.
To play it safe, instead of Veerman, I'm going to opt for home-nation favourite Renato Paratore to add to his win tally in 2020. He has averaged 4.60 for the season on Par-Fives, and is 18th on Tour for Putts per GIR. I think that might be an important stat, during a week where a lot of players will hit a lot of greens.
On the PGA Tour, Tiger Woods returns for his first start since the US Open, to defend the ZOZO Championship. Played for the first time last season, the ZOZO was scheduled again this year to be played at Nasahiro CC in Japan, but has been moved to Sherwood Country Club in California for this years event.
Many will recognise the name Sherwood CC, as it was the former host of what is now the Hero World Challenge. It hosted 14 PGA Tour events from 2000 to 2013, and it's fair to say that Tiger Woods had quite a bit of success here. In those 14 events, Woods finished outside of the top-two just four times, and amassed five wins, and five runner-up finishes.
It'll come as a surprise to nobody, that Tiger has the best record on this golf course of all-time, at +3.68 strokes gained per round. That's a full shot better than even his own remarkably high baseline.
What is interesting, however, are some of the other players that have consistently performed very well at Sherwood. Zach Johnson, Padraig Harrington, and Graeme McDowell have all amassed double digit counting rounds on this course, and place inside it's top-ten all-time performers.
There's good reason for this: Sherwood typically favours accurate drivers of the golf ball over length. Driving Accuracy is the only major category on this golf course that is significantly more important than the average week on Tour. Interestingly, Driving Distance is the only one that is significantly lower. All other major categories (Approach, Around the Green, and Putting) are all more or less in accordance with the PGA Tour baseline.
The data plot for Sherwood CC is almost identical to that of Muirfield Village, host of the Memorial Championship, where only the category of Approach differs, carrying slightly more weight than it does at Sherwood.
One person seems to fit this style incredibly well - Matthew Fitzpatrick. It's time for him to win something big. The course requires strength in every category, while also not being overtly favourable to the long-hitters.
Remember which course Sherwood CC was most similar to? Muirfield Village - where Fitzpatrick finished third this season. Remember which statistic was the main separator? Driving Accuracy - in which Fitzpatrick has finished third in the field in both of his last two events.
Fitzpatrick is entering the week off of the back of a T7 finish at Wentworth, and a T12 at the CJ Cup. He's hovering like a buzzard, but it's time to kill for the young Englishman. Don't take your eyes off of him.
For the third week in succession, I'm also picking Tyrrell Hatton. This is a combination of the fact that I'm incredibly lazy and Hatton being a very simple pick - and Hatton being a very simple pick, which allows me to be very lazy. He hasn't let me down yet, though.
Hatton is a top-five golfer on the planet right now. He simply isn't doing anything wrong, and while this form can't last forever, this is not the week it is going to end. Last week, he was second in SG: Tee-to-Green, ninth in SG: Off the Tee, first in SG: Approach, and 11th SG: Putting. At Wentworth, the week before, he was first in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 14th in SG: Putting.
It's all so good for Hatton at the moment. He can do nothing wrong, and another win is in his very near future.
It's an incredibly perilous hill to be on, by ignoring Tiger Woods this week, but it's difficult to justify picking him for any other reason than course history. He has hardly played a competitive event this season, and when he has, his form isn't what we've come to expect. In seven events in 2020, he has just one finish better than a T37.
Ignoring Xander Schauffele and Jon Rahm seems like a bad idea, too. I'm doing it, though, devil may care.
There is methodology to my madness, however. Schauffele is the most in form golfer in the field this week, with three consecutive top-five finishes on Tour. However, at the CJ Cup, his last event, he finished T66 in the field for Driving Accuracy. That will not be good enough at Sherwood CC.
Rahm is equally difficult to ignore, entering the week with a T17 last week, and a win earlier in the year at Muirfield Village, the most comparable course to Sherwood CC on the PGA Tour. So why isn't he my pick to win? In two events so far this season, Rahm has found just 50% of his fairways. Granted, one of those events was the US Open, but those stats still do not inspire confidence.
It should be an entertaining week of golf. Even despite the absence of Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Bryson DeChambeau in California, the field is incredibly strong, and interesting. While the golf course in Italy might underwhelm a touch, a lot of European Tour favourites have made the trip to the continent, which should be more than adequate compensation.
Official Picks:
Italian Open - Matt Wallace / Renato Paratore
ZOZO Championship - Matthew Fitzpatrick / Tyrrell Hatton
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