The dream week for hoteliers
Temporarily moving from Nine Bridges in South Korea, the CJ Cup is taking place at Shadow Creek at MGM Resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event marks the competitive return from injury of Brooks Koepka, and the first time all five of the world's top ranked golfers will play the same event in the 2021 season.
Meanwhile, on the European Tour, the inaugural Scottish Championship will be played on the Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews, presumably due to the presence of an onsite hotel, and not because no other course was available in the entire country.
So, it's the Fairmont and MGM, in St Andrews and Las Vegas. Who said golf was out of touch with the common person? Bring on hotel week.
Detailed analysis is going to be difficult this week, as neither the Fairmont nor Shadow Creek have hosted a ranking professional stroke-play championship. Shadow Creek played host to the first edition of "The Match" between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson in 2018, but neither of those two are in the field this week. The Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews' most prestigious event comes in the form of being an Open Championship Final Qualifying venue in 2019.
In 2019, Connor Syme shot a pair of 67's at the Torrance Course to qualify for The Open in second place. He was beaten that day by then amateur, now Korn Ferry professional, Brandon Wu, by three strokes. This is as detailed a course history as is available, unfortunately.
The one piece of data that provides a slither of insight is that Brandon Wu currently ranks inside the top-ten on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting, while on the European Tour, Connor Syme is ranked inside the top-ten for SG: Off the Tee.
At 7,200 yards - in October, in Scotland - it's going to be no slouch. Prowess off the tee, as always, will be an important factor in determining a winner. Professional tournaments at resort-type courses can often also become putting contests, and it wouldn't shock me to my core to see that happen here. Driving and putting may very well be the categories to study this week.
It won't be wise to look past the first few names on the odds board in Scotland. Matt Wallace, Lee Westwood, Eddie Pepperell, Aaron Rai, and Robert Macintyre are, by some distance, the best (or most in-form) players in the field.
While the likes of Gavin Green, Renato Paratore and Connor Syme may tempt some, a simple glance at their recent form should discourage this course of action.
Matt Wallace, the favourite, has struggled this year, but seems to be trending in the right direction. He hasn't missed a cut in any of his last four events, and finished in a tie for 24th at the BMW PGA Championship.
Aaron Rai won in Scotland two weeks ago, but really struggled to a Friday round of 76 at Wentworth, while Eddie Pepperell looks like he's playing some good golf again. When it comes to players that know how to win, Pepperell certainly falls into that category.
Home-favourite Robert Macintyre has rebounded well after a slow start to the year, making all five cuts from his last five starts, including a T14 finish at the Scottish Open at The Renaissance. Putting continues to prove problematic for Macintyre, however. He is seventh from last place on the European Tour for SG: Putting in the 2020 season, and finished in the bottom-half of the field for the same category in his last event at Wentworth, after yet another negative return on the greens.
With all of this taken into consideration, the name that sticks out from this group of favourites is the veteran, Lee Westwood. In his last five events, Westwood has recorded five top-20 finishes, displaying some remarkable consistency.
At Wentworth last week, Westwood finished the event with a SG: Off the Tee average gain of +0.67 strokes per round, and a SG: Putting average gain of +0.79, which ranked 18th and 23rd in the field, respectively. His game is evidently in handsome shape, and another trophy doesn't seem far away for the 25-time European Tour winner.
At the close of play at the US Open, Eddie Pepperell had played just three Saturday and Sunday rounds of golf in 2020. His results show an abhorrent array of letters for golfers; DQ, MC (multiple), and WD. In the last two weeks, however, it's two consecutive top-ten finishes, including a solo sixth placed finish at Wentworth that catapults him back into the world's top-100 golfers.
The main positive change for Pepperell has been on the green. He recorded +0.97 strokes gained putting at Wentworth (13th in the field), after finishing as the third best putter in the field in Scotland the week before. This, in a category that had been his Achilles Heel in the immediate aftermath of the return to golf. If he can keep the putter hot, it's only a matter of time before Pepperell is a champion on Tour again.
In the United States, the data available for the golf this week is as bare as it is in Europe. Shadow Creek is a Tom Fazio design, that will play about 7,500 yards. In the event of a playoff, they will not play a made up hole from the putting green.
There is simply no data to analyse. There is a statistical void. So little information is available about this week of golf, I'm tempted to just write a story with statistical analysis on the regular host of the CJ Cup, Nine Bridges on Jeju Island. There, I could tell you that Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas have the best course history, and that the great separator for good and bad play actually comes around, and on, the greens. Rare and fascinating, but as it happens, now irrelevant!
Instead, as on the European Tour, all data will simply have to be an analysis of form. Most players in the upper echelons of the world rankings that are participating this week have not played a competitive round since Winged Foot and the US Open, so even this is a tough ask.
The focal point for the week will be Brooks Koepka, and his return from injury. This comes at an event that he won in 2018, and had to withdraw from with a knee injury in 2019. I like the mystery and intrigue surrounding his return. Very few swing videos have leaked, his online activity has mostly surrounded the NBA Finals, and Jenna Sims posting pictures of finding golf tees in his trouser pockets is just about all the convincing I need to think he is going to come out firing.
I can't bring myself to make this pick, as much as I want to. It would be for all the wrong reasons. Something about him withdrawing from the US Open, waiting to get healthy before competing, and the odd suggestion that he is actually practicing just screams that we are about to see 2018 Koepka again, but it will have to be a pass (albeit, a reluctant one) this week.
One name that is sticking out is Sungjae Im. In true Sungjae fashion, he already has 12 rounds amassed in the 2021 season, and his form is beginning to look a lot like what preceded his win in February at the Honda Classic.
Sungjae is recording more than one stroke gained on average off the tee so far this season, and is pairing that with an SG: Putting average of +0.149. This isn't anything overly spectacular, but nothing ever is with Sungjae Im. The three month break from competitive golf could not have come at a worse time for him, but the South Korean is finally starting to show his pre-break form. Keep an eye on Sungjae in Vegas, and in the coming weeks.
Sticking with the internationals, Tyrrell Hatton could very well go back-to-back on different continents. After winning the 2017 Alfred Dunhill in Scotland, he went on to win the very next week at the Italian Open. After his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this year, and despite a three month gap, he placed T3 at his next event, the RBC Heritage.
This has been a sensational year for Hatton, breaking into the World's top-ten for the first time, and he owes this to stellar play in every facet of his game. He finished the 2020 season eighth on the PGA Tour SG: Total list, and finished the BMW PGA Championship 25th or better in every single major strokes gained category. That gets the job done, almost anywhere.
Though he may not get to don the hoodie in Vegas, don't be surprised if Hatton picks up PGA Tour win number two, and back-to-back trophies, at the CJ Cup.
Official Picks:
Fairmont Hotel Scottish Championship: Lee Westwood / Eddie Pepperell
MGM Resorts CJ Cup: Sungjae Im / Tyrrell Hatton.
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